Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.48% | -4.01% | -3.39% | 0.83% | -1.78% | 3.97% | 11.77% | -0.66% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.64% | 3.76% | -4.89% | 0.15% | 6.85% | -4.04% | 0.94% | 5.09% | -4.45% | -2.83% | -0.26% | 3.70% |
| 2024 | 5.49% | 5.68% | 1.43% | -6.18% | -0.92% | -1.32% | 5.27% | 4.23% | 2.16% | 1.31% | 6.68% | -1.20% |
| 2023 | 6.75% | -4.13% | 2.29% | 4.74% | -3.95% | 7.75% | 0.39% | 4.66% | -4.05% | -4.80% | 9.96% | 3.06% |
| 2022 | 7.67% | -6.62% | -0.95% | 1.82% | -1.52% | -11.85% | 12.32% | -8.32% | -12.34% | 15.60% | 8.60% | -2.43% |
| 2021 | -11.28% | 11.88% | 0.62% | 7.43% | -5.62% | 1.25% | 5.84% | -10.29% | 0.42% | -3.38% | -6.14% | 14.10% |
| 2020 | -8.13% | -16.78% | 14.01% | 9.43% | -1.72% | 4.48% | 16.10% | -5.59% | -14.55% | 16.58% | 6.07% | |
| Avg | 1.47% | -0.22% | -3.10% | 3.26% | 0.36% | -0.85% | 5.86% | 1.91% | -3.98% | -1.44% | 5.90% | 3.88% |
MA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.9% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -3.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
MA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MA Distribution of Daily % Changes