Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.8% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.8% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +14.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.9% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -23.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -18.99% | 8.13% | -5.01% | 1.35% | -6.86% | -8.66% | 5.85% | -4.84% | ||||
| 2025 | -10.77% | -1.87% | -13.60% | -5.07% | 12.98% | 5.71% | 20.43% | 10.51% | -6.66% | 10.34% | 15.31% | -4.50% |
| 2024 | -0.59% | 11.89% | -5.17% | -14.20% | 1.95% | -1.73% | -10.35% | -1.19% | 29.11% | 3.00% | 2.73% | -3.20% |
| 2023 | 22.74% | -2.59% | -0.03% | 11.14% | -13.66% | 5.21% | 3.12% | -7.96% | -16.44% | 3.53% | -2.42% | 6.70% |
| 2022 | 16.37% | -2.15% | -9.31% | -8.85% | 0.08% | -5.27% | 12.21% | -0.16% | -0.29% | 1.31% | 23.23% | 2.63% |
| 2021 | -19.31% | 30.17% | -2.94% | 0.82% | -5.73% | -8.76% | -19.62% | 5.34% | -17.96% | 6.04% | -8.22% | 5.67% |
| 2020 | -10.72% | -25.71% | 13.07% | -0.17% | -5.01% | -4.17% | 16.20% | -7.99% | 3.00% | 15.92% | 6.98% | |
| Avg | -1.76% | 4.69% | -8.82% | -0.25% | -1.63% | -2.65% | 1.07% | 3.79% | -3.37% | 4.54% | 7.76% | 2.38% |
LVS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
LVS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
LVS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
LVS Distribution of Daily % Changes