Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +3.3% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -1.5% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +3.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -14.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.79% | 6.33% | -4.99% | -7.13% | -1.68% | -7.43% | -4.66% | 5.33% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.82% | -2.78% | 2.11% | 5.12% | 11.05% | 3.17% | 9.56% | 1.02% | 10.50% | -5.34% | -3.20% | 5.34% |
| 2024 | -1.04% | 1.55% | 1.22% | 0.45% | 5.04% | 0.40% | 1.03% | 4.31% | 1.01% | 4.04% | -0.02% | -14.61% |
| 2023 | 3.17% | -1.69% | -6.57% | -0.56% | -9.85% | 12.01% | -3.21% | -6.02% | -1.60% | 3.04% | 7.00% | 10.38% |
| 2022 | -1.85% | 20.56% | -1.09% | -6.52% | 3.72% | 0.80% | -0.72% | -4.91% | -8.47% | 18.59% | -7.40% | -8.31% |
| 2021 | -9.26% | 6.06% | 12.02% | 3.23% | 4.71% | -0.88% | 4.90% | 2.77% | -5.06% | 4.68% | -8.89% | 1.99% |
| 2020 | -10.66% | -8.49% | 7.54% | 2.97% | -14.57% | -0.79% | 7.37% | -5.59% | -5.14% | 19.69% | -1.55% | |
| Avg | 1.44% | 2.77% | -0.83% | 0.30% | 2.28% | -0.93% | 0.87% | 0.76% | -1.54% | 3.31% | 1.20% | -1.13% |
LHX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
LHX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
LHX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
LHX Distribution of Daily % Changes