Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +7.7% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.1% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +6.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 187 of the year, the current YTD return is +18.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
LH - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
LH - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
LH Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.23% | 6.75% | -7.72% | -3.75% | 1.55% | 7.67% | 10.43% | 7.82% | -7.13% | |||
| 2025 | 8.93% | 0.78% | -7.29% | 3.55% | 3.60% | 5.44% | -0.93% | 7.16% | 3.26% | -11.53% | 6.12% | -6.66% |
| 2024 | -2.20% | -2.59% | 1.22% | -7.82% | -2.85% | 4.41% | 5.86% | 7.04% | -2.79% | 2.14% | 5.96% | -4.91% |
| 2023 | 7.07% | -4.78% | -4.15% | -1.18% | -5.94% | 13.55% | 3.18% | -2.40% | -3.39% | -0.66% | 8.98% | 4.79% |
| 2022 | -13.64% | -0.04% | -2.80% | -8.87% | 2.98% | -5.01% | 11.87% | -13.84% | -9.08% | 8.32% | 8.81% | -2.17% |
| 2021 | 12.46% | 4.81% | 6.30% | 4.25% | 3.24% | 0.50% | 7.36% | 2.44% | -7.23% | 1.98% | -0.59% | 10.12% |
| 2020 | 0.17% | -28.06% | 30.11% | 6.61% | -5.25% | 16.14% | -8.90% | 7.12% | 6.11% | 0.04% | 1.86% | |
| Avg | 3.48% | 0.73% | -6.07% | 2.33% | 1.31% | 3.04% | 7.70% | -0.10% | -2.75% | 1.06% | 4.89% | 0.50% |
LH Distribution of Daily % Changes