Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.4% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.1% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -2.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.25% | 4.28% | -2.98% | 5.50% | -7.99% | 9.33% | 2.47% | -2.57% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.90% | 1.50% | 6.05% | -5.53% | 2.91% | 2.65% | -1.22% | 6.98% | 3.71% | -0.83% | 8.41% | -2.37% |
| 2024 | 4.70% | 3.20% | 4.21% | -4.01% | 2.28% | -2.68% | 6.97% | 2.57% | -3.53% | -0.11% | 9.92% | -2.35% |
| 2023 | 5.40% | -0.53% | -5.03% | -0.78% | -2.62% | 6.04% | 5.51% | -0.79% | 1.96% | 1.11% | 9.91% | -1.00% |
| 2022 | 3.29% | 2.92% | 5.67% | -3.05% | 4.32% | -9.51% | -1.70% | -4.94% | -9.89% | 14.41% | 2.10% | 0.31% |
| 2021 | 0.60% | 5.70% | 7.26% | 8.72% | 4.83% | -6.39% | -1.87% | 4.30% | -3.47% | 3.97% | -4.55% | 8.04% |
| 2020 | -11.21% | -23.67% | -0.49% | -3.91% | 3.16% | 6.18% | -1.34% | -3.10% | -0.20% | 21.02% | 7.42% | |
| Avg | 2.52% | 0.84% | -1.21% | 0.05% | -0.03% | 0.37% | 2.33% | 1.13% | -2.39% | 3.06% | 7.80% | 1.68% |
L - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
L Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
L Distribution of Daily % Changes
L - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years