Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 3Y.
Nov averages +13.1% with a 100% win rate across 3 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -9.7% with only a 33% win rate across 3 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +5.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.8% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 3Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +18.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.87% | 11.15% | -9.83% | 1.68% | -0.24% | 10.59% | 0.68% | 0.90% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.28% | 11.95% | 1.61% | -1.58% | 2.03% | -12.32% | 2.44% | -2.48% | -21.63% | -11.46% | 22.26% | -0.58% |
| 2024 | -3.58% | -7.53% | 12.95% | -12.30% | 3.64% | -5.80% | 1.71% | 19.86% | 5.38% | -0.86% | 5.93% | -11.34% |
| 2023 | 5.30% | -10.37% | -1.83% | -12.88% | -7.37% | 11.04% | 5.33% | |||||
| Avg | -1.00% | 5.19% | 1.57% | -4.07% | 1.81% | -0.56% | -1.39% | 5.18% | -9.71% | -6.57% | 13.08% | -2.19% |
KVUE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 3 years
KVUE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
3 years of data
KVUE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2023 to 2026
KVUE Distribution of Daily % Changes