Seasonality
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Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +11.6% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.7% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +16.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +16.8% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -21.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.59% | 9.12% | 6.04% | -5.93% | -8.22% | -10.65% | 3.98% | -1.14% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.80% | 5.67% | 4.43% | 6.68% | -5.05% | 5.13% | -2.27% | -2.73% | -0.63% | -5.61% | 6.30% | -7.13% |
| 2024 | 0.94% | 8.21% | 15.16% | -3.06% | -4.94% | -4.66% | 9.15% | -1.77% | 7.69% | -2.67% | 10.12% | 0.11% |
| 2023 | 0.11% | -2.78% | 14.44% | -1.50% | -6.29% | 3.68% | 3.49% | -4.06% | -3.54% | 1.39% | -1.78% | 3.25% |
| 2022 | -3.69% | 7.85% | 22.59% | -5.94% | -1.45% | -10.65% | -1.88% | 3.80% | -8.74% | 8.09% | 4.60% | -9.37% |
| 2021 | 8.63% | -6.13% | 11.74% | 1.53% | 1.70% | 3.60% | 6.24% | 13.65% | -12.17% | -1.01% | 4.29% | 8.98% |
| 2020 | 5.32% | 7.07% | 4.95% | 3.68% | 3.77% | 2.78% | 3.09% | -4.96% | -5.01% | 3.03% | -3.76% | |
| Avg | 1.23% | 3.89% | 11.64% | -0.47% | -2.94% | -1.40% | 3.07% | 2.00% | -3.72% | -0.80% | 4.43% | -1.32% |
KR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
KR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
KR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
KR Distribution of Daily % Changes