Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +3.5% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.9% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +23.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
KO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
KO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
KO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.01% | 9.02% | -6.11% | 3.56% | 0.32% | 3.52% | 7.78% | 1.23% | -0.06% | |||
| 2025 | 1.96% | 12.18% | 1.32% | 1.30% | -0.62% | -1.17% | -4.04% | 1.62% | -3.13% | 3.89% | 6.12% | -3.72% |
| 2024 | 0.95% | 0.89% | 2.75% | 0.96% | 1.88% | 1.93% | 4.85% | 8.59% | -0.16% | -9.12% | -1.14% | -2.84% |
| 2023 | -3.60% | -2.95% | 5.03% | 3.42% | -7.00% | 1.71% | 2.84% | -3.39% | -5.69% | 0.91% | 4.28% | 0.84% |
| 2022 | 3.04% | 2.02% | 0.38% | 4.21% | -1.90% | -0.02% | 2.00% | -3.83% | -8.56% | 6.84% | 7.04% | 0.00% |
| 2021 | -12.20% | 1.74% | 8.49% | 2.41% | 2.43% | -1.40% | 5.40% | -1.26% | -6.12% | 7.43% | -6.23% | 12.89% |
| 2020 | -8.41% | -16.55% | 3.71% | 1.72% | -3.41% | 5.73% | 4.85% | 0.48% | -2.65% | 8.21% | 6.28% | |
| Avg | -0.47% | 2.07% | -0.67% | 2.80% | -0.45% | 0.16% | 3.51% | 1.11% | -3.86% | 1.22% | 3.05% | 2.24% |
KO Distribution of Daily % Changes