Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.4% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.5% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +20.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.00% | 11.72% | -3.52% | 5.21% | 1.86% | 6.43% | 0.51% | -4.20% | ||||
| 2025 | -4.18% | -1.56% | -2.76% | -5.93% | 6.41% | 0.07% | 1.00% | 5.93% | -1.77% | -5.45% | 0.00% | -0.62% |
| 2024 | -5.21% | -2.18% | 0.47% | -5.00% | 3.92% | 1.78% | 11.66% | 7.04% | 0.86% | 2.15% | 7.80% | -7.45% |
| 2023 | 6.04% | -8.24% | -4.12% | -1.74% | -4.22% | 8.61% | 2.74% | -6.52% | -5.96% | 1.99% | 7.69% | 12.10% |
| 2022 | -1.58% | -3.01% | 5.82% | 2.55% | -6.63% | -15.67% | 11.84% | -4.66% | -11.77% | 16.13% | 7.20% | -6.61% |
| 2021 | 9.99% | 11.02% | 3.19% | 12.00% | 1.48% | -1.40% | 2.30% | 2.16% | -4.02% | 8.92% | -0.80% | 10.74% |
| 2020 | -8.92% | -44.27% | 16.19% | 1.83% | 15.57% | -13.16% | 7.53% | -5.32% | -8.88% | 40.74% | 5.06% | |
| Avg | 1.51% | -0.17% | -6.46% | 3.32% | 0.66% | 2.20% | 2.41% | 1.92% | -4.66% | 2.48% | 10.44% | 2.20% |
KIM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
KIM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
KIM Distribution of Daily % Changes
KIM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years