Seasonality
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KEY - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -10.9% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.2% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +17.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
KEY - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.26% | -3.62% | -2.37% | 10.27% | -3.53% | 9.13% | -2.00% | 3.19% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.90% | -3.67% | -6.55% | -7.19% | 8.29% | 9.84% | 2.87% | 8.04% | -2.43% | -5.89% | 4.49% | 13.55% |
| 2024 | 0.90% | -0.36% | 10.79% | -8.35% | 0.60% | -1.11% | 13.51% | 7.06% | -1.82% | 2.99% | 12.93% | -11.06% |
| 2023 | 10.16% | -3.61% | -31.55% | -10.06% | -15.33% | -1.07% | 33.23% | -6.19% | -5.03% | -5.02% | 23.33% | 16.22% |
| 2022 | 8.34% | 0.82% | -10.73% | -13.72% | 4.39% | -13.68% | 6.21% | -2.30% | -9.44% | 11.55% | 6.41% | -7.39% |
| 2021 | 2.74% | 19.45% | 0.13% | 8.91% | 6.73% | -10.37% | -4.79% | 4.28% | 6.40% | 7.63% | -2.74% | 3.07% |
| 2020 | -12.61% | -35.85% | 12.34% | 1.72% | 4.41% | -1.40% | 4.09% | -3.17% | 8.80% | 20.47% | 6.14% | |
| Avg | 5.22% | -0.52% | -10.88% | -1.11% | 0.41% | -0.41% | 6.80% | 2.50% | -2.58% | 3.34% | 10.82% | 3.42% |
KEY Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
KEY Distribution of Daily % Changes