Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is -4.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
JPM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
JPM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
JPM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.64% | -1.83% | -2.04% | 7.03% | -4.44% | 9.36% | 7.96% | 1.20% | -5.19% | |||
| 2025 | 12.09% | -0.99% | -7.31% | 0.34% | 7.92% | 9.81% | 2.68% | 1.75% | 4.65% | -0.89% | 0.63% | 2.92% |
| 2024 | 3.14% | 6.71% | 7.65% | -3.72% | 5.68% | -0.18% | 5.79% | 5.64% | -6.20% | 5.89% | 12.53% | -4.01% |
| 2023 | 5.14% | 2.42% | -9.10% | 6.92% | -1.83% | 7.17% | 9.35% | -7.36% | -0.90% | -3.40% | 12.24% | 8.98% |
| 2022 | -5.59% | -4.58% | -3.86% | -11.79% | 10.78% | -14.84% | 3.35% | -1.41% | -8.12% | 21.54% | 9.77% | -2.95% |
| 2021 | 1.99% | 14.38% | 3.44% | 1.63% | 6.78% | -5.30% | -1.86% | 5.38% | 2.34% | 4.41% | -6.51% | -0.30% |
| 2020 | -12.28% | -22.46% | 7.47% | 1.62% | -3.34% | 3.74% | 3.67% | -3.91% | 2.78% | 20.24% | 7.80% | |
| Avg | 2.02% | 0.55% | -4.81% | 1.13% | 3.79% | 0.38% | 4.43% | 1.27% | -2.02% | 5.06% | 8.15% | 2.07% |
JPM Distribution of Daily % Changes