Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +5.2% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -1.9% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +6.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +0.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
J - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.11% | 2.19% | -7.67% | 1.67% | -7.09% | 5.12% | 7.09% | 7.21% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.87% | -8.35% | -5.64% | 2.41% | 3.30% | 4.08% | 7.93% | 3.30% | 2.48% | 3.97% | -13.48% | -1.51% |
| 2024 | 3.83% | 9.03% | 4.83% | -6.63% | -2.71% | 0.27% | 4.96% | 3.10% | 3.85% | 7.62% | 0.46% | -5.39% |
| 2023 | 2.90% | -3.07% | -1.67% | -1.74% | -4.86% | 8.48% | 5.70% | 7.50% | 1.25% | -2.15% | -4.59% | 2.06% |
| 2022 | -6.50% | -5.33% | 12.04% | 0.54% | 1.28% | -9.25% | 8.19% | -9.26% | -12.73% | 6.20% | 9.82% | -5.11% |
| 2021 | -7.34% | 14.19% | 12.33% | 3.36% | 6.50% | -6.10% | 1.53% | -0.21% | -1.80% | 6.12% | 1.52% | -2.34% |
| 2020 | -0.21% | -14.15% | 4.39% | 1.78% | 0.93% | 0.88% | 5.76% | 2.77% | 2.61% | 13.52% | 1.04% | |
| Avg | -0.02% | 1.21% | 0.01% | 0.57% | -0.26% | 0.50% | 5.18% | 1.70% | -0.70% | 4.06% | 1.21% | -1.87% |
J - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
J Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
J Distribution of Daily % Changes