Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +5.8% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.7% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +18.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.07% | 11.24% | -9.87% | -0.88% | -4.16% | 10.04% | 6.09% | 1.35% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.21% | 1.86% | -5.47% | -3.27% | 2.15% | 1.50% | 3.53% | 3.39% | -0.86% | -6.46% | 2.20% | -0.56% |
| 2024 | -0.40% | 0.48% | 2.90% | -9.03% | -0.56% | -1.81% | 4.36% | 2.39% | 4.10% | -0.36% | 6.28% | -8.09% |
| 2023 | 7.14% | -1.22% | 4.99% | -0.62% | -9.59% | 14.98% | 5.26% | -6.06% | -6.32% | -2.69% | 8.07% | 8.72% |
| 2022 | -5.22% | -7.52% | -2.66% | -5.87% | 5.56% | -11.82% | 14.00% | -6.22% | -6.63% | 18.20% | 6.53% | -2.57% |
| 2021 | -4.74% | 4.10% | 10.12% | 4.04% | 0.56% | -3.05% | 1.39% | 2.73% | -10.76% | 10.28% | 1.88% | 6.84% |
| 2020 | -4.11% | -14.66% | 14.34% | 6.13% | 2.04% | 5.80% | 6.79% | -1.62% | 1.38% | 7.76% | -2.86% | |
| Avg | 0.84% | 0.69% | -2.09% | -0.18% | 0.01% | 1.70% | 5.77% | 0.50% | -3.68% | 3.39% | 5.45% | 0.25% |
ITW - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ITW - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ITW Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ITW Distribution of Daily % Changes