Seasonality
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IT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.7% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -5.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -13.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -27.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -16.91% | -25.00% | 0.73% | -6.22% | 9.23% | -20.09% | 16.51% | 19.91% | ||||
| 2025 | 12.05% | -8.20% | -15.77% | 0.32% | 3.64% | -7.38% | -16.22% | -25.83% | 4.65% | -5.53% | -6.28% | 8.40% |
| 2024 | 1.40% | 1.78% | 2.39% | -13.44% | 1.72% | 7.00% | 11.61% | -1.84% | 3.01% | -0.84% | 3.07% | -6.46% |
| 2023 | 0.59% | -3.06% | -0.62% | -7.16% | 13.36% | 2.17% | 0.94% | -1.11% | -1.74% | -3.37% | 30.96% | 3.74% |
| 2022 | -12.09% | -4.58% | 6.08% | -2.32% | -9.69% | -7.84% | 9.78% | 7.47% | -3.02% | 9.12% | 16.05% | -4.06% |
| 2021 | -5.17% | 17.86% | 1.96% | 7.30% | 18.36% | 4.47% | 9.30% | 16.62% | -1.57% | 9.22% | -5.92% | 7.07% |
| 2020 | -19.52% | -23.05% | 19.32% | 2.43% | -0.30% | 2.73% | 4.16% | -3.75% | -3.88% | 26.56% | 5.39% | |
| Avg | -3.36% | -5.82% | -4.04% | -0.31% | 5.58% | -3.14% | 4.95% | -0.09% | -0.40% | 0.79% | 10.74% | 2.35% |
IT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
IT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
IT Distribution of Daily % Changes