Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +7.7% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.0% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +18.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -7.0% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -32.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
ISRG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.97% | -0.14% | -8.44% | -0.73% | -7.20% | -6.35% | -11.15% | 11.65% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.56% | 0.22% | -13.59% | 4.15% | 7.08% | -1.62% | -11.47% | -1.62% | -5.51% | 19.46% | 7.34% | -1.24% |
| 2024 | 12.11% | 1.95% | 3.50% | -7.13% | 8.50% | 10.63% | -0.05% | 10.80% | -0.28% | 2.56% | 7.57% | -3.70% |
| 2023 | -7.41% | -6.63% | 11.37% | 17.91% | 2.20% | 11.08% | -5.13% | -3.61% | -6.52% | -10.29% | 18.54% | 8.53% |
| 2022 | -20.91% | 2.16% | 3.91% | -20.68% | -4.87% | -11.83% | 14.68% | -10.61% | -8.89% | 31.49% | 9.71% | -1.86% |
| 2021 | -8.61% | -1.45% | 0.29% | 17.06% | -2.64% | 9.20% | 7.81% | 6.26% | -5.64% | 8.98% | -10.19% | 10.78% |
| 2020 | -4.61% | -7.26% | 3.16% | 13.54% | -1.76% | 20.29% | 6.62% | -2.91% | -5.98% | 8.84% | 12.68% | |
| Avg | -4.37% | -1.21% | -1.46% | 1.96% | 2.37% | 1.34% | 2.14% | 1.31% | -4.96% | 7.70% | 6.97% | 4.20% |
ISRG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ISRG Distribution of Daily % Changes
ISRG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years