Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +12.3% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.0% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +1.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.67% | 9.35% | -14.87% | -0.32% | -10.27% | 14.45% | 1.70% | -0.02% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.69% | -9.62% | -5.58% | -5.75% | 8.26% | 1.89% | 1.74% | -6.12% | 4.02% | -7.61% | 5.28% | -1.39% |
| 2024 | 3.26% | 14.36% | 3.99% | -1.72% | -0.27% | -2.38% | 10.52% | -8.89% | 7.34% | -2.20% | 8.53% | -13.16% |
| 2023 | 7.18% | 3.73% | 0.19% | -1.99% | -0.60% | 15.35% | -0.14% | 6.68% | -8.46% | -4.77% | 17.75% | 8.27% |
| 2022 | -9.15% | -10.12% | -0.29% | -12.69% | 7.31% | -10.75% | 18.35% | -4.84% | -8.68% | 16.74% | 6.91% | -3.19% |
| 2021 | -8.17% | 10.76% | 6.19% | 0.41% | 0.47% | -1.67% | 0.12% | 8.49% | -4.92% | 6.65% | 8.56% | 6.05% |
| 2020 | -7.14% | -24.37% | 17.26% | -3.03% | -0.28% | 12.34% | 10.98% | 1.54% | -1.85% | 26.70% | 2.91% | |
| Avg | 0.91% | 1.62% | -4.96% | -0.69% | 0.27% | 2.37% | 6.38% | 1.05% | -1.53% | 1.16% | 12.29% | -0.08% |
IR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
IR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
IR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
IR Distribution of Daily % Changes