Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +7.8% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -4.3% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +4.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.2% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -12.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
IP - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
IP - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
IP Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.36% | 9.09% | -18.03% | -14.79% | 11.67% | 13.83% | 7.17% | -6.04% | -5.88% | |||
| 2025 | 3.36% | 2.15% | -5.32% | -14.38% | 5.67% | -2.05% | -0.19% | 7.33% | -6.60% | -16.72% | 3.44% | -0.23% |
| 2024 | -0.89% | -0.02% | 10.35% | -10.46% | 30.48% | -4.30% | 7.72% | 5.23% | 0.89% | 13.70% | 6.79% | -8.52% |
| 2023 | 20.76% | -11.95% | -0.91% | -8.18% | -9.76% | 8.05% | 13.36% | -1.88% | 1.57% | -4.91% | 11.10% | -2.14% |
| 2022 | 2.70% | -8.88% | 6.02% | 0.28% | 5.71% | -13.66% | 2.25% | -1.65% | -23.83% | 6.03% | 11.86% | -6.71% |
| 2021 | 1.19% | -0.27% | 8.90% | 7.27% | 9.68% | -2.84% | -5.79% | 4.93% | -6.94% | -6.20% | -7.50% | 3.21% |
| 2020 | -8.13% | -15.77% | 10.02% | 1.00% | 3.41% | -1.19% | 5.73% | 11.77% | 7.92% | 14.34% | 0.49% | |
| Avg | 4.92% | -2.57% | -2.11% | -4.32% | 7.78% | 0.35% | 3.33% | 1.95% | -3.86% | -0.03% | 6.67% | -2.32% |
IP Distribution of Daily % Changes