Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.7% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.7% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -19.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.90% | -2.05% | -14.44% | -0.19% | 0.49% | -6.58% | 6.20% | -1.45% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.08% | 3.57% | -3.93% | 3.02% | 18.65% | 4.48% | -0.38% | 21.11% | -1.27% | -1.47% | 19.60% | -10.14% |
| 2024 | -7.20% | 11.68% | -6.14% | -8.74% | 0.85% | -1.96% | -2.27% | 1.09% | 4.96% | -19.46% | 3.64% | -1.97% |
| 2023 | 17.78% | -1.51% | 5.67% | -1.58% | -5.57% | 8.06% | 10.45% | -7.81% | -14.50% | -8.64% | 16.61% | 19.16% |
| 2022 | -22.96% | 4.94% | 2.76% | -21.31% | -9.03% | -10.44% | 13.81% | -12.92% | -6.28% | 10.40% | 18.40% | -4.21% |
| 2021 | -4.24% | 8.67% | -5.93% | 12.20% | 1.66% | 13.16% | 7.44% | -0.70% | -7.70% | 7.11% | -8.72% | 8.29% |
| 2020 | -6.09% | -4.82% | 14.60% | 11.27% | 6.89% | 20.47% | -1.68% | 0.52% | 8.07% | 8.51% | 8.44% | |
| Avg | -2.57% | 2.74% | -3.83% | -0.29% | 2.62% | 1.94% | 7.96% | -0.15% | -4.04% | -0.67% | 9.67% | 3.26% |
IDXX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
IDXX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
IDXX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
IDXX Distribution of Daily % Changes