Seasonality
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ICE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.30% | -5.55% | -3.86% | 0.52% | -6.48% | -16.42% | 23.86% | 1.48% | ||||
| 2025 | 7.26% | 8.38% | -0.14% | -2.63% | 7.04% | 2.32% | 0.74% | -4.45% | -4.33% | -13.17% | 7.53% | 3.27% |
| 2024 | -0.86% | 8.71% | -0.39% | -6.31% | 3.99% | 2.57% | 10.72% | 6.59% | -0.29% | -2.97% | 3.27% | -7.16% |
| 2023 | 4.83% | -5.35% | 2.89% | 4.45% | -2.74% | 7.14% | 1.52% | 2.78% | -6.42% | -2.35% | 5.96% | 13.22% |
| 2022 | -7.39% | 1.15% | 3.42% | -12.34% | -11.59% | -7.79% | 8.45% | -1.12% | -10.07% | 5.78% | 13.33% | -4.94% |
| 2021 | -4.28% | -0.04% | 1.53% | 5.40% | -4.10% | 5.46% | 0.95% | -0.25% | -3.67% | 20.59% | -5.59% | 4.88% |
| 2020 | -10.55% | -9.17% | 10.77% | 8.72% | -5.51% | 5.66% | 9.76% | -5.54% | -5.65% | 11.77% | 9.57% | |
| Avg | 1.14% | -0.46% | -0.82% | -0.02% | -0.74% | -1.75% | 7.41% | 2.22% | -5.05% | 0.37% | 6.04% | 3.14% |
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +7.4% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.1% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -4.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
ICE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ICE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ICE Distribution of Daily % Changes