Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +12.4% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.4% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +20.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +2.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
HWM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.49% | 26.24% | -12.22% | 5.46% | 6.30% | 4.11% | 4.98% | 2.50% | ||||
| 2025 | 15.74% | 8.00% | -5.03% | 6.82% | 22.67% | 9.56% | -3.42% | -3.09% | 12.71% | 4.95% | -0.60% | 0.21% |
| 2024 | 3.95% | 18.39% | 2.82% | -2.46% | 26.89% | -8.29% | 23.28% | 1.09% | 3.71% | -0.53% | 18.80% | -7.61% |
| 2023 | 3.25% | 3.76% | 0.45% | 4.53% | -3.39% | 15.93% | 3.19% | -3.18% | -6.51% | -4.65% | 19.40% | 2.89% |
| 2022 | -2.32% | 15.61% | 0.06% | -5.06% | 4.89% | -12.08% | 18.06% | -4.53% | -12.70% | 14.94% | 6.08% | 4.62% |
| 2021 | -13.88% | 14.36% | 14.30% | -0.53% | 11.01% | -2.85% | -4.79% | -3.20% | -1.73% | -4.84% | -5.19% | 13.15% |
| 2020 | -1.94% | -45.28% | 6.12% | 0.08% | 21.18% | -6.75% | 18.54% | -4.57% | 3.17% | 36.00% | 21.65% | |
| Avg | 1.37% | 12.06% | -6.41% | 2.13% | 9.78% | 3.94% | 4.94% | 0.94% | -1.51% | 2.17% | 12.41% | 5.82% |
HWM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HWM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HWM Distribution of Daily % Changes