Seasonality
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HSY - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Feb averages +5.7% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -2.8% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +5.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -5.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.02% | 22.12% | -12.02% | -10.65% | 5.27% | -9.58% | -0.23% | 6.07% | ||||
| 2025 | -11.87% | 16.71% | -0.97% | -2.25% | -3.08% | 3.27% | 12.16% | -0.52% | 1.80% | -9.31% | 11.73% | -3.24% |
| 2024 | 3.81% | -2.21% | 3.50% | -0.30% | 2.70% | -7.08% | 7.43% | -1.55% | -0.66% | -7.40% | -0.02% | -3.85% |
| 2023 | -3.01% | 6.57% | 6.75% | 7.33% | -4.52% | -3.85% | -7.36% | -6.60% | -6.88% | -6.36% | 0.92% | -0.79% |
| 2022 | 1.86% | 3.09% | 7.10% | 4.22% | -5.82% | 1.63% | 5.95% | -1.00% | -1.87% | 8.30% | -1.05% | -1.53% |
| 2021 | -4.52% | 0.68% | 8.59% | 3.88% | 5.82% | 0.65% | 2.70% | -0.16% | -4.76% | 3.60% | 1.73% | 9.00% |
| 2020 | -6.76% | -7.98% | -0.05% | 3.06% | -4.47% | 12.18% | 2.78% | -3.57% | -4.10% | 8.16% | 3.00% | |
| Avg | -1.12% | 5.75% | 0.71% | 0.31% | 0.49% | -2.77% | 4.69% | -1.18% | -2.66% | -2.55% | 3.58% | 0.43% |
HSY - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
HSY Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HSY Distribution of Daily % Changes