Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.8% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.1% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +25.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
HST - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.51% | 5.72% | -1.15% | 10.28% | 8.76% | 7.13% | 5.99% | -8.87% | ||||
| 2025 | -4.62% | -3.47% | -10.65% | -0.63% | 9.70% | 0.44% | 2.34% | 9.48% | 0.04% | -5.88% | 10.05% | 2.53% |
| 2024 | -1.28% | 7.91% | 0.70% | -8.75% | -4.93% | 1.35% | -2.61% | 1.09% | 0.54% | -2.05% | 6.84% | -3.25% |
| 2023 | 17.45% | -10.88% | -1.09% | -1.94% | 2.66% | 2.31% | 9.33% | -14.18% | 2.93% | -3.67% | 12.86% | 13.99% |
| 2022 | -0.29% | 5.36% | 6.51% | 4.74% | -1.77% | -21.27% | 13.58% | -0.22% | -9.98% | 18.89% | 0.32% | -13.51% |
| 2021 | -7.38% | 22.44% | 1.57% | 7.77% | -5.45% | -0.47% | -6.79% | 3.95% | -1.39% | 3.06% | -6.71% | 10.76% |
| 2020 | -11.38% | -22.38% | 11.50% | -3.01% | -9.63% | -0.09% | 4.17% | -3.92% | -2.87% | 33.87% | 4.28% | |
| Avg | 1.40% | 2.24% | -3.78% | 3.28% | 0.85% | -2.88% | 3.11% | 0.71% | -1.96% | 1.25% | 9.54% | 2.47% |
HST - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HST Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HST Distribution of Daily % Changes