Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.2% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.0% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +14.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
HSIC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HSIC Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.13% | 9.15% | -10.55% | 1.21% | 2.67% | 9.06% | 2.67% | 4.69% | ||||
| 2025 | 15.61% | -9.79% | -5.10% | -5.14% | 7.73% | 4.37% | -7.39% | 2.85% | -4.61% | -4.78% | 17.99% | 1.35% |
| 2024 | -1.15% | 2.18% | -1.24% | -8.26% | 0.09% | -7.56% | 12.23% | -1.93% | 3.33% | -3.66% | 9.71% | -10.19% |
| 2023 | 7.86% | -9.10% | 4.12% | -0.90% | -8.55% | 9.74% | -2.85% | -2.86% | -2.99% | -12.48% | 2.69% | 13.46% |
| 2022 | -2.88% | 14.71% | 0.94% | -6.98% | 5.60% | -10.39% | 2.72% | -6.88% | -10.41% | 4.09% | 18.20% | -1.30% |
| 2021 | -1.51% | -6.07% | 11.95% | 4.71% | 4.88% | -2.43% | 8.03% | -5.69% | 0.75% | 0.25% | -6.93% | 9.11% |
| 2020 | -11.60% | -17.10% | 8.00% | 11.29% | -3.84% | 17.71% | -3.33% | -11.53% | 8.17% | 1.15% | 3.97% | |
| Avg | 2.97% | -1.50% | -2.43% | -1.05% | 3.39% | -0.15% | 4.73% | -2.97% | -4.24% | -1.40% | 7.14% | 2.73% |
HSIC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HSIC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years