Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.4% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.3% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +4.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.92% | 4.49% | -2.47% | 6.57% | 1.15% | 0.85% | -3.02% | 2.10% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.60% | 3.53% | -14.12% | -0.91% | 10.25% | 7.21% | 0.65% | 3.03% | -6.02% | -0.96% | 10.99% | 0.78% |
| 2024 | 4.87% | 7.08% | 4.40% | -7.51% | 1.76% | 8.77% | -1.62% | 2.39% | 4.94% | 1.89% | 7.98% | -2.48% |
| 2023 | 14.82% | -0.30% | -2.52% | 2.24% | -5.39% | 6.93% | 6.83% | -4.30% | 1.03% | 0.90% | 10.65% | 8.70% |
| 2022 | -6.97% | 2.58% | 1.93% | 2.34% | -9.19% | -20.89% | 14.92% | -0.44% | -5.29% | 12.14% | 5.56% | -11.40% |
| 2021 | -8.87% | 21.98% | -2.23% | 6.43% | -2.67% | -3.71% | 8.98% | -5.01% | 5.81% | 8.96% | -6.17% | 15.49% |
| 2020 | -9.69% | -29.79% | 10.95% | 4.75% | -7.39% | 2.18% | 20.40% | -5.58% | 2.92% | 18.02% | 7.36% | |
| Avg | 1.90% | 4.24% | -6.40% | 2.87% | 0.10% | -1.18% | 4.13% | 2.68% | -0.85% | 4.31% | 7.84% | 3.07% |
HLT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HLT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
HLT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HLT Distribution of Daily % Changes