Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.99% | 4.27% | -3.57% | 1.17% | -7.08% | 4.73% | 7.09% | -2.74% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.97% | 6.03% | 5.07% | -0.86% | 5.84% | -1.89% | -1.95% | 6.37% | 1.21% | -6.90% | 10.35% | 1.00% |
| 2024 | 8.19% | 10.21% | 8.05% | -5.98% | 6.77% | -2.37% | 10.32% | 4.67% | 1.71% | -6.10% | 11.65% | -10.90% |
| 2023 | 2.35% | 0.86% | -10.48% | 1.87% | -2.88% | 5.11% | -0.19% | 0.51% | -1.27% | 3.58% | 7.07% | 2.84% |
| 2022 | 4.10% | -2.80% | 3.35% | -2.62% | 4.24% | -9.76% | -1.47% | 0.35% | -3.69% | 16.90% | 6.06% | -0.71% |
| 2021 | -1.96% | 6.28% | 31.76% | -1.24% | -0.39% | -5.17% | 2.66% | 6.21% | 4.51% | 3.81% | -8.85% | 4.45% |
| 2020 | -15.21% | -29.45% | 7.80% | 1.63% | 0.68% | 9.78% | -3.66% | -8.88% | 4.50% | 15.57% | 10.81% | |
| Avg | 2.11% | 1.38% | 0.68% | 0.02% | 1.16% | -1.24% | 3.75% | 2.41% | -1.07% | 2.63% | 6.97% | 1.25% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.0% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -1.2% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -14.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
HIG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HIG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
HIG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HIG Distribution of Daily % Changes