Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +10.8% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.6% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +11.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.3% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -28.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.59% | 8.49% | -10.53% | -8.20% | -12.87% | 3.20% | 3.26% | 0.52% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.92% | -7.16% | 13.07% | -0.14% | 10.52% | 0.64% | -7.60% | 14.12% | 5.69% | 7.86% | 10.57% | -8.01% |
| 2024 | 12.64% | 2.23% | 7.22% | -7.11% | 9.66% | -5.25% | 13.00% | 8.96% | 2.91% | -11.73% | -8.79% | -8.08% |
| 2023 | 6.30% | -4.56% | 8.57% | 8.97% | -8.05% | 15.11% | -10.11% | 1.65% | -11.09% | -8.07% | 10.76% | 8.31% |
| 2022 | -6.57% | 4.27% | 0.33% | -14.39% | -1.93% | -19.87% | 26.40% | -6.85% | -6.87% | 18.33% | 10.46% | 0.12% |
| 2021 | -1.20% | 5.88% | 9.76% | 6.75% | 6.83% | -3.53% | 20.05% | 1.93% | -3.87% | 3.19% | -9.93% | 14.11% |
| 2020 | -8.18% | -29.26% | 22.29% | -2.71% | -9.20% | 30.48% | 7.17% | -8.13% | -0.54% | 21.12% | 9.74% | |
| Avg | 4.28% | 0.14% | -0.12% | 1.17% | 0.21% | -2.70% | 10.78% | 4.50% | -3.56% | 1.51% | 5.70% | 2.70% |
HCA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HCA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
HCA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HCA Distribution of Daily % Changes