Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +10.9% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.9% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +19.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +5.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.61% | 7.40% | 8.83% | 8.49% | -8.16% | -12.24% | -5.01% | 6.73% | ||||
| 2025 | -4.30% | 1.35% | -3.11% | -21.88% | -1.16% | 4.91% | 9.91% | 1.47% | 9.04% | 9.11% | -2.31% | 8.47% |
| 2024 | -1.38% | -1.63% | 12.95% | -4.95% | -2.06% | -7.49% | 2.66% | -10.35% | -6.03% | -4.51% | 14.85% | -14.20% |
| 2023 | 4.75% | -11.73% | -12.67% | 3.51% | -12.52% | 15.74% | 18.46% | -1.18% | 5.29% | -2.86% | -5.87% | -1.94% |
| 2022 | 34.41% | 9.08% | 13.35% | -5.94% | 14.03% | -22.57% | -6.57% | 2.83% | -17.96% | 47.93% | 4.04% | 4.20% |
| 2021 | -6.72% | 23.82% | -1.50% | -8.85% | 14.78% | 3.19% | -10.55% | -3.17% | 8.21% | 15.59% | -13.61% | 6.13% |
| 2020 | -22.24% | -59.18% | 53.28% | 11.90% | 10.88% | 10.40% | 12.91% | -25.32% | 0.08% | 37.56% | 14.22% | |
| Avg | 7.56% | 0.86% | -5.91% | 3.38% | 2.40% | -1.08% | 2.76% | 0.42% | -4.46% | 10.89% | 5.78% | 2.81% |
HAL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HAL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
HAL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HAL Distribution of Daily % Changes