Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +8.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.5% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +14.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +16.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
GWW - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GWW - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
GWW Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.03% | 6.20% | -4.71% | 6.47% | 6.49% | 10.22% | 1.60% | -5.08% | -2.96% | |||
| 2025 | 0.82% | -3.71% | -3.27% | 3.69% | 6.41% | -4.35% | -0.07% | -2.27% | -5.97% | 2.73% | -2.87% | 6.37% |
| 2024 | 8.08% | 8.90% | 4.50% | -9.43% | 0.23% | -2.09% | 8.27% | 1.04% | 5.47% | 6.78% | 8.85% | -12.55% |
| 2023 | 5.97% | 13.69% | 3.05% | 0.98% | -6.43% | 21.50% | -6.35% | -3.04% | -3.12% | 5.49% | 7.98% | 5.41% |
| 2022 | -4.46% | -3.31% | 8.12% | -3.06% | -2.24% | -6.70% | 19.61% | 2.42% | -11.85% | 19.45% | 3.50% | -7.76% |
| 2021 | -10.76% | 2.71% | 7.57% | 8.13% | 6.98% | -5.23% | 1.50% | -2.09% | -9.37% | 17.82% | 4.30% | 7.65% |
| 2020 | -7.87% | -10.46% | 10.90% | 12.93% | 1.47% | 8.71% | 7.47% | -2.37% | -1.89% | 19.99% | -2.38% | |
| Avg | 1.11% | 2.37% | 0.69% | 2.53% | 3.48% | 2.12% | 4.75% | -0.22% | -4.54% | 8.40% | 6.96% | -0.54% |
GWW Distribution of Daily % Changes