Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.0% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +16.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +4.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.42% | -8.11% | -1.06% | 9.19% | 11.02% | -0.95% | 0.69% | 2.07% | ||||
| 2025 | 11.84% | -2.35% | -12.21% | 0.23% | 10.21% | 17.87% | 2.24% | 3.54% | 6.86% | -0.88% | 4.65% | 6.94% |
| 2024 | -0.46% | 2.03% | 7.36% | 2.16% | 7.63% | -0.92% | 12.54% | 0.83% | -2.97% | 4.58% | 17.53% | -5.44% |
| 2023 | 6.53% | -3.87% | -6.31% | 4.99% | -4.97% | -0.42% | 10.33% | -7.15% | -1.26% | -6.17% | 13.42% | 12.95% |
| 2022 | -7.29% | -3.78% | -2.71% | -7.46% | 7.65% | -9.13% | 12.24% | 0.54% | -11.91% | 17.56% | 12.82% | -11.08% |
| 2021 | 2.83% | 17.82% | 2.76% | 6.56% | 7.12% | 2.02% | -1.23% | 10.84% | -8.58% | 9.34% | -7.83% | 0.94% |
| 2020 | -15.04% | -23.00% | 18.65% | 7.80% | 0.58% | 0.17% | 4.12% | -1.90% | -5.94% | 21.97% | 14.99% | |
| Avg | 3.31% | -1.90% | -5.03% | 4.90% | 6.64% | 1.29% | 5.28% | 2.12% | -3.29% | 3.08% | 10.43% | 3.22% |
GS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
GS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
GS Distribution of Daily % Changes