Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +5.1% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -1.8% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +26.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
GILD - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GILD - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
GILD Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.65% | 4.93% | -5.90% | -6.12% | 2.74% | -5.40% | 3.06% | 12.39% | 4.02% | |||
| 2025 | 5.23% | 17.60% | -1.29% | -4.92% | 3.32% | 1.43% | 1.28% | 0.61% | -1.06% | 7.92% | 5.05% | -1.82% |
| 2024 | -3.39% | -7.87% | 2.64% | -10.99% | -1.43% | 8.06% | 10.86% | 3.87% | 7.12% | 5.94% | 4.23% | 0.61% |
| 2023 | -2.22% | -4.06% | 4.01% | -0.92% | -6.41% | 1.14% | -1.21% | 0.45% | -1.05% | 4.80% | -2.47% | 6.72% |
| 2022 | -5.41% | -12.06% | -0.32% | -0.18% | 9.29% | -3.50% | -3.33% | 6.23% | -1.70% | 27.18% | 11.94% | -1.44% |
| 2021 | 12.60% | -6.40% | 6.46% | -1.79% | 4.16% | 5.25% | -0.83% | 6.57% | -3.06% | -7.12% | 6.24% | 6.41% |
| 2020 | 9.75% | 8.79% | 12.36% | -7.35% | -0.26% | -9.63% | -4.00% | -4.34% | -7.98% | 4.33% | -2.89% | |
| Avg | 3.74% | 0.27% | 2.06% | -1.79% | 0.62% | 0.96% | 0.03% | 3.73% | -0.68% | 5.13% | 4.89% | 1.27% |
GILD Distribution of Daily % Changes