Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 2Y.
Apr averages +19.4% with a 100% win rate across 2 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.5% with only a 0% win rate across 2 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +40.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +12.9% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 2Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +22.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.22% | 20.27% | -0.02% | 24.12% | -10.63% | 21.39% | -15.71% | 7.37% | ||||
| 2025 | 13.36% | -10.11% | -8.92% | 21.56% | 27.55% | 11.88% | 24.84% | -7.17% | 0.31% | -4.80% | 2.50% | 8.97% |
| 2024 | 12.40% | 14.44% | -2.50% | 3.92% | 12.77% | 26.86% | 18.31% | 10.76% | -1.48% | |||
| Avg | 12.29% | 5.08% | -4.47% | 19.36% | 10.45% | 10.26% | 4.35% | 2.80% | 13.59% | 6.75% | 6.63% | 3.75% |
GEV - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
2 years of data
GEV - Average returns for the respective month in the last 3 years
GEV Distribution of Daily Returns from 2024 to 2026
GEV Distribution of Daily % Changes