Seasonality
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Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 4Y.
Feb averages +9.8% with a 75% win rate across 4 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -11.1% with only a 0% win rate across 4 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +11.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +11.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 4Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -22.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.68% | 6.71% | -15.53% | -14.48% | 2.47% | 2.68% | 6.32% | 8.34% | ||||
| 2025 | 12.99% | -1.08% | -7.60% | -12.82% | 0.30% | 5.00% | -3.67% | 3.38% | 1.86% | -0.15% | 6.72% | 2.54% |
| 2024 | -5.08% | 24.43% | -0.41% | -16.11% | 2.31% | -0.10% | 8.65% | 0.22% | 10.65% | -6.90% | -4.73% | -6.06% |
| 2023 | 19.08% | 9.32% | 7.93% | -0.84% | -2.21% | 2.18% | -3.95% | -9.68% | -3.42% | -2.12% | 2.84% | 12.94% |
| Avg | 5.83% | 9.85% | -3.90% | -11.06% | 0.71% | 2.44% | 1.84% | -2.03% | 3.03% | -3.06% | 1.61% | 3.14% |
GEHC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
4 years of data
GEHC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 4 years
GEHC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2022 to 2026
GEHC Distribution of Daily % Changes