Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.6% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.3% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -7.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -22.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -18.99% | -13.29% | -5.15% | 4.98% | -1.11% | -1.11% | -2.52% | 14.71% | ||||
| 2025 | 7.74% | -15.59% | 0.36% | 4.55% | -3.28% | -1.15% | -10.26% | -8.21% | -7.74% | -2.70% | -3.96% | -2.96% |
| 2024 | 0.47% | 7.02% | 3.97% | 3.12% | 14.10% | 0.06% | 4.11% | 15.10% | -6.35% | 6.39% | 18.45% | -0.10% |
| 2023 | 9.77% | -7.82% | 2.65% | -2.62% | -3.04% | 2.38% | 2.61% | -5.94% | 2.72% | -1.68% | 36.64% | 6.10% |
| 2022 | -10.78% | 10.17% | 0.35% | -3.45% | -7.13% | -7.32% | 6.64% | 2.21% | -6.52% | 13.43% | -1.58% | -5.45% |
| 2021 | -5.27% | 3.23% | -4.31% | 11.85% | -6.75% | 7.41% | -3.58% | -12.57% | -4.92% | -0.76% | 1.45% | 20.93% |
| 2020 | 4.12% | -18.39% | 21.57% | 11.26% | -5.07% | -4.16% | 19.07% | -9.21% | -6.88% | 12.44% | 4.29% | |
| Avg | -2.84% | -1.74% | -2.93% | 5.71% | 0.58% | -0.68% | -1.02% | 1.61% | -5.34% | 1.30% | 10.57% | 3.80% |
GDDY - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GDDY - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
GDDY Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
GDDY Distribution of Daily % Changes