Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +4.4% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.2% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +5.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
GD - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GD Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
GD Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.71% | 1.70% | -3.87% | 0.78% | 0.73% | 2.14% | 8.71% | 3.22% | ||||
| 2025 | -1.95% | -1.70% | 7.91% | 0.39% | 2.34% | 4.73% | 7.39% | 4.16% | 5.06% | 1.59% | -0.95% | -1.45% |
| 2024 | 2.59% | 3.12% | 3.38% | 2.13% | 4.42% | -3.21% | 3.47% | 0.22% | 0.95% | -3.04% | -2.61% | -7.23% |
| 2023 | -5.56% | -2.21% | 0.13% | -3.77% | -6.49% | 5.37% | 4.56% | 1.37% | -2.50% | 9.87% | 2.35% | 5.14% |
| 2022 | 2.32% | 10.54% | 2.87% | -1.41% | -4.91% | -1.06% | 2.45% | 1.00% | -7.32% | 18.39% | 1.04% | -1.70% |
| 2021 | -0.72% | 11.45% | 11.07% | 5.45% | -0.17% | -0.87% | 4.79% | 2.18% | -2.14% | 4.05% | -6.80% | 10.32% |
| 2020 | -8.98% | -17.15% | -0.46% | 12.41% | 1.79% | -1.09% | 1.78% | -7.31% | -4.40% | 13.72% | -0.35% | |
| Avg | 0.23% | 1.99% | 0.62% | 0.44% | 1.19% | 1.27% | 4.33% | 1.78% | -2.21% | 4.41% | 1.13% | 0.79% |
GD - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years