Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.35% | 12.10% | -6.52% | 8.16% | -2.46% | 4.85% | -3.08% | 4.07% | ||||
| 2025 | 8.44% | -2.10% | -8.00% | -4.77% | 0.83% | -1.44% | -8.06% | -0.15% | 2.49% | 2.76% | 6.36% | 3.23% |
| 2024 | 6.18% | 8.99% | 1.05% | -12.50% | -0.99% | -0.46% | -3.04% | 3.55% | 6.20% | -9.50% | 11.17% | -5.46% |
| 2023 | 5.88% | -1.91% | 2.27% | -7.45% | 3.32% | 14.84% | 4.79% | 0.73% | -5.95% | -11.97% | 5.79% | 6.74% |
| 2022 | -7.54% | -8.11% | -5.90% | -5.63% | 7.55% | -11.96% | 18.52% | -1.63% | -7.94% | 9.61% | 5.82% | -4.89% |
| 2021 | -6.69% | -0.29% | 7.32% | 0.25% | 2.50% | -3.83% | 4.19% | 1.67% | -4.38% | 7.28% | -2.34% | 3.28% |
| 2020 | -7.61% | -20.20% | 15.96% | -4.61% | 10.95% | 3.74% | 2.84% | 5.69% | -3.41% | 13.96% | 0.98% | |
| Avg | 0.32% | 0.15% | -4.28% | -0.85% | 0.88% | 1.85% | 2.44% | 1.17% | -0.65% | -0.87% | 6.79% | 0.65% |
FTV - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.3% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +12.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
FTV - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FTV Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FTV Distribution of Daily % Changes