Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.9% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.1% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +21.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
FRT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.49% | 7.52% | -2.35% | 5.54% | 7.87% | 3.18% | 1.46% | -4.59% | ||||
| 2025 | -2.00% | -2.96% | -7.21% | -2.79% | 1.55% | -0.51% | -1.84% | 9.10% | 0.76% | -3.98% | 2.64% | 2.10% |
| 2024 | -1.28% | -0.86% | 2.34% | 2.01% | -3.09% | 1.11% | 10.58% | 3.00% | -0.03% | -2.66% | 5.24% | -4.03% |
| 2023 | 10.38% | -4.26% | -6.46% | 0.06% | -10.81% | 10.99% | 4.91% | -3.53% | -6.42% | 0.62% | 4.83% | 8.93% |
| 2022 | -6.48% | -7.77% | 4.78% | -4.10% | -1.79% | -15.77% | 10.31% | -4.11% | -10.00% | 9.83% | 12.24% | -8.08% |
| 2021 | 2.87% | 15.54% | 1.25% | 11.23% | 1.33% | 3.41% | 0.31% | 3.61% | -2.22% | 2.00% | 1.93% | 12.00% |
| 2020 | -6.94% | -35.22% | 11.61% | -4.04% | 7.92% | -10.46% | 3.85% | -6.10% | -6.35% | 26.81% | -1.19% | |
| Avg | 0.83% | 0.04% | -6.12% | 3.36% | -1.28% | 1.47% | 2.18% | 1.99% | -4.00% | -0.09% | 8.95% | 1.62% |
FRT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FRT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FRT Distribution of Daily % Changes