Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +11.3% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -2.1% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +15.2% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +45.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
FIX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.37% | 25.15% | -3.47% | 33.45% | -0.62% | 8.41% | -12.73% | 2.62% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.99% | -16.81% | -11.17% | 23.34% | 20.41% | 12.12% | 31.16% | 0.08% | 17.32% | 17.01% | 1.24% | -4.47% |
| 2024 | 5.74% | 40.58% | 4.00% | -2.61% | 5.89% | -7.09% | 9.31% | 6.45% | 10.42% | 0.18% | 26.24% | -14.03% |
| 2023 | 5.18% | 20.16% | 0.48% | 2.42% | -0.88% | 10.96% | 5.95% | 6.23% | -7.67% | 6.71% | 6.58% | 6.25% |
| 2022 | -9.26% | -4.23% | 3.67% | -5.16% | 6.46% | -7.32% | 27.07% | -4.91% | -3.00% | 26.66% | 2.95% | -9.21% |
| 2021 | 5.26% | 11.74% | 20.90% | 10.15% | 0.80% | -4.96% | -5.13% | 1.80% | -6.13% | 28.25% | 3.85% | 4.29% |
| 2020 | -9.01% | -13.21% | -8.89% | 11.51% | 10.14% | 21.99% | 2.13% | 1.66% | -11.09% | 10.28% | 4.50% | |
| Avg | 5.38% | 9.66% | 0.17% | 7.53% | 6.22% | 3.18% | 11.09% | 1.96% | 2.10% | 11.29% | 8.52% | -2.11% |
FIX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FIX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FIX Distribution of Daily % Changes