Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.28% | -1.49% | -5.24% | 9.26% | -1.64% | 13.70% | 0.23% | 2.76% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.80% | -1.90% | -8.95% | -8.32% | 6.26% | 8.67% | 1.07% | 10.10% | -1.80% | -6.58% | 4.42% | 8.62% |
| 2024 | -0.72% | 0.29% | 9.42% | -2.02% | 2.63% | -1.52% | 16.03% | 0.83% | 1.22% | 1.96% | 10.03% | -11.26% |
| 2023 | 10.61% | 0.03% | -25.70% | -1.65% | -7.37% | 9.36% | 11.03% | -8.76% | -3.23% | -6.40% | 22.10% | 20.34% |
| 2022 | 2.48% | 7.19% | -9.44% | -12.80% | 5.06% | -14.05% | 1.55% | 0.09% | -5.45% | 11.67% | 1.88% | -8.84% |
| 2021 | 4.93% | 19.91% | 8.75% | 8.25% | 3.95% | -8.64% | -5.07% | 7.08% | 9.97% | 2.57% | -3.17% | 4.03% |
| 2020 | -14.24% | -38.17% | 25.86% | 3.75% | 0.88% | 3.01% | 4.03% | 3.19% | 10.31% | 9.13% | 9.89% | |
| Avg | 4.90% | 1.40% | -9.91% | 2.65% | 1.81% | 1.20% | 3.98% | 2.23% | 0.65% | 2.26% | 7.40% | 3.80% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -9.9% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.6% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +19.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
FITB - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FITB - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FITB Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FITB Distribution of Daily % Changes