Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +7.3% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -5.7% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +0.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -7.7% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -34.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -16.87% | -7.76% | -7.16% | -0.81% | -7.61% | -8.53% | 15.15% | -4.13% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.87% | -12.70% | 5.60% | 5.62% | 0.93% | 2.76% | -2.46% | -12.09% | -4.99% | -5.19% | 5.20% | 1.67% |
| 2024 | 3.65% | 11.13% | 7.77% | -8.44% | 11.72% | -0.22% | 1.95% | 7.31% | 2.02% | 7.14% | -4.94% | -4.91% |
| 2023 | 10.60% | -15.55% | -13.55% | 8.08% | -7.07% | 1.19% | 10.38% | -7.49% | -0.12% | -11.15% | 19.41% | 3.35% |
| 2022 | 9.87% | -20.59% | 5.99% | -1.26% | 5.40% | -11.88% | 11.44% | -10.56% | -16.84% | 9.82% | -12.54% | -5.88% |
| 2021 | -12.72% | 11.78% | 2.17% | 8.74% | -2.56% | -4.65% | 5.21% | -14.28% | -4.48% | -8.99% | -5.63% | 4.84% |
| 2020 | -2.74% | -12.71% | 8.43% | 5.26% | -3.17% | 9.11% | 3.10% | -2.18% | -15.37% | 19.12% | -4.46% | |
| Avg | -0.77% | -5.21% | -1.70% | 2.91% | 0.87% | -3.50% | 7.26% | -5.67% | -4.43% | -3.95% | 3.43% | -0.90% |
FIS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FIS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FIS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FIS Distribution of Daily % Changes