Seasonality
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FE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FE Distribution of Daily % Changes
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +2.3% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -3.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.4% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -0.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.74% | 9.10% | -0.98% | -6.20% | -1.37% | 2.48% | 1.62% | -0.89% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.05% | -1.55% | 4.26% | 6.09% | -1.17% | -4.01% | 6.09% | 3.19% | 5.04% | 0.02% | 5.14% | -6.18% |
| 2024 | 0.05% | 0.95% | 5.49% | -0.72% | 6.16% | -4.94% | 9.51% | 5.86% | 0.98% | -5.68% | 2.77% | -6.51% |
| 2023 | -2.36% | -2.48% | 1.32% | -0.65% | -5.10% | 3.98% | 1.31% | -7.46% | -5.24% | 4.15% | 4.93% | -0.76% |
| 2022 | 0.89% | 0.66% | 9.58% | -5.56% | 0.09% | -10.64% | 7.06% | -2.81% | -6.45% | 1.92% | 10.49% | 1.70% |
| 2021 | 0.49% | 9.05% | 4.68% | 9.31% | 1.01% | -1.85% | 2.98% | 2.49% | -8.36% | 8.17% | -1.28% | 10.44% |
| 2020 | -11.66% | -10.02% | 2.99% | 3.37% | -8.23% | -25.22% | -0.07% | 0.42% | 3.52% | -9.42% | 15.25% | |
| Avg | 0.81% | 0.58% | 2.05% | 0.75% | 0.42% | -3.31% | 0.48% | 0.20% | -2.27% | 2.02% | 2.11% | 2.32% |
FE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data