Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.9% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -3.7% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +17.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.74% | -9.66% | -1.24% | 3.25% | 6.83% | 3.69% | 3.01% | 10.86% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.54% | 3.33% | 2.46% | -8.60% | 2.57% | 2.05% | 1.74% | 3.70% | 1.70% | -0.56% | 20.51% | 1.97% |
| 2024 | -0.68% | -5.33% | 1.65% | -8.44% | 8.62% | 3.84% | 0.02% | -1.13% | 6.47% | -9.44% | 2.22% | -8.39% |
| 2023 | 4.07% | -3.32% | 5.32% | 3.38% | -2.52% | 9.81% | 5.09% | -8.32% | -1.78% | -4.69% | 10.79% | 5.70% |
| 2022 | -14.75% | -9.71% | -0.19% | -3.96% | 10.53% | -10.46% | 9.02% | -3.16% | -14.17% | 10.80% | 19.31% | -10.46% |
| 2021 | -5.88% | 2.59% | 17.26% | 2.02% | 14.94% | 0.72% | 1.30% | -2.81% | -4.42% | 3.47% | -0.88% | 10.42% |
| 2020 | -3.59% | -5.25% | 7.33% | 7.39% | -0.43% | 11.14% | 4.59% | 2.41% | -2.38% | 1.73% | 6.42% | |
| Avg | -1.16% | -3.67% | 2.86% | -0.72% | 6.91% | 1.32% | 4.48% | -1.19% | -1.63% | -0.47% | 8.95% | 0.94% |
EXPD - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EXPD - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EXPD Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EXPD Distribution of Daily % Changes