Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.86% | -3.99% | 2.28% | -6.95% | -8.43% | -1.93% | 3.11% | 1.40% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.06% | -2.68% | 13.24% | -6.67% | 12.34% | 0.70% | -10.40% | -6.21% | 9.77% | -2.76% | 18.59% | -9.49% |
| 2024 | 0.22% | 7.35% | 8.06% | 1.18% | 1.97% | -9.61% | -7.13% | -1.63% | 10.42% | 3.00% | 17.51% | 0.60% |
| 2023 | -8.11% | -6.82% | -4.44% | 8.73% | -7.62% | 11.20% | 0.79% | 5.32% | -2.24% | -0.17% | -6.04% | -4.20% |
| 2022 | 5.66% | 13.32% | 15.16% | -5.72% | 21.88% | -16.72% | 16.12% | 9.36% | -6.25% | 8.56% | 4.42% | -8.82% |
| 2021 | -1.79% | 5.02% | 16.66% | -1.67% | 4.10% | 3.94% | 10.36% | 3.49% | -5.92% | 8.36% | ||
| Avg | 0.34% | 1.44% | 5.42% | -0.73% | 6.13% | -3.00% | 1.10% | 2.15% | 4.41% | 2.42% | 5.71% | -2.71% |
EXE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EXE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EXE Distribution of Daily % Changes
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +6.1% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -3.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +7.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.2% historically, with January alone posting a 80% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -33.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
EXE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data