Seasonality
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EW - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +6.8% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -6.4% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.3% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +3.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.56% | 6.28% | -7.39% | 4.27% | 3.56% | 4.61% | -4.85% | 6.42% | ||||
| 2025 | -2.13% | -1.15% | 1.20% | 4.15% | 3.62% | -0.01% | 1.41% | 2.56% | -4.39% | 6.02% | 5.12% | -1.64% |
| 2024 | 2.91% | 8.16% | 12.60% | -11.40% | 2.62% | 6.31% | -31.74% | 10.96% | -5.67% | 1.55% | 6.48% | 3.76% |
| 2023 | 2.80% | 4.88% | 2.85% | 6.35% | -4.26% | 11.99% | -13.00% | -6.82% | -9.40% | -8.03% | 6.26% | 12.61% |
| 2022 | -15.71% | 2.90% | 4.76% | -10.14% | -4.66% | -5.71% | 5.73% | -10.38% | -8.29% | -12.34% | 6.65% | -3.42% |
| 2021 | -9.48% | 0.63% | 0.65% | 14.20% | 0.40% | 8.00% | 8.40% | 4.37% | -3.39% | 5.84% | -10.44% | 20.73% |
| 2020 | -6.83% | -7.92% | 15.31% | 3.32% | -7.74% | 13.46% | 9.48% | -7.01% | -10.19% | 17.02% | 8.75% | |
| Avg | -4.36% | 2.12% | 0.96% | 3.25% | 0.66% | 2.49% | -2.94% | 1.69% | -6.36% | -2.86% | 5.18% | 6.80% |
EW - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EW Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EW Distribution of Daily % Changes