Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +4.7% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.9% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.0% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +11.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
EVRG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.85% | 9.03% | -1.25% | 1.12% | -0.14% | 5.35% | -3.96% | 1.23% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.26% | 7.39% | 1.08% | 0.22% | -2.91% | 3.79% | 2.71% | 1.59% | 6.68% | 1.04% | 2.03% | -6.65% |
| 2024 | -2.74% | -2.42% | 9.12% | -1.74% | 5.43% | -3.09% | 9.50% | 3.09% | 4.85% | -2.53% | 8.05% | -4.77% |
| 2023 | -0.45% | -6.13% | 5.03% | 1.62% | -5.90% | 0.99% | 2.65% | -7.34% | -7.77% | -3.08% | 5.21% | 2.27% |
| 2022 | -5.32% | -3.93% | 10.52% | -0.72% | 3.97% | -6.71% | 4.61% | 1.21% | -13.32% | 2.91% | -2.13% | 6.28% |
| 2021 | -3.21% | -0.19% | 12.10% | 7.46% | -2.26% | -2.52% | 7.93% | 5.77% | -9.13% | 2.49% | 0.17% | 8.39% |
| 2020 | -9.44% | -15.16% | 6.14% | 6.49% | -3.89% | 9.34% | -17.11% | -4.51% | 8.62% | 1.37% | 0.18% | |
| Avg | -0.27% | -0.81% | 3.06% | 2.01% | 0.67% | -0.87% | 4.68% | -2.13% | -3.87% | 1.58% | 2.45% | 0.95% |
EVRG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EVRG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EVRG Distribution of Daily % Changes