Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.5% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.7% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +7.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.79% | 1.29% | -4.12% | 8.76% | 3.58% | 7.89% | -2.56% | 1.19% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.56% | 9.49% | -0.77% | -8.94% | 1.70% | 0.73% | -8.19% | 3.85% | 0.02% | -5.94% | 4.71% | -0.74% |
| 2024 | -5.92% | -0.80% | 6.90% | 0.59% | 5.50% | 5.72% | 2.26% | 8.42% | -1.29% | -3.91% | 9.37% | -8.06% |
| 2023 | 6.68% | 0.88% | -7.25% | 5.06% | -1.67% | 9.54% | 3.95% | -2.12% | -10.05% | 0.86% | -0.21% | 17.22% |
| 2022 | -5.60% | -4.61% | 9.60% | -4.69% | -13.79% | -7.10% | 9.57% | -7.49% | -7.78% | -8.25% | -0.84% | -2.84% |
| 2021 | 0.92% | 6.34% | 7.50% | 6.87% | 1.64% | 2.30% | 9.36% | 0.80% | -2.69% | 6.31% | -0.14% | 4.39% |
| 2020 | -8.52% | -21.56% | 10.83% | -0.54% | -4.72% | -3.68% | -1.92% | -6.32% | 1.89% | 20.18% | -2.59% | |
| Avg | -1.03% | 0.58% | -1.39% | 2.64% | -0.51% | 2.05% | 1.53% | 0.26% | -4.69% | -1.51% | 5.51% | 1.23% |
ESS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ESS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ESS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ESS Distribution of Daily % Changes