Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.7% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.6% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +3.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.2% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +1.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.04% | 1.43% | -5.29% | 10.53% | 0.11% | 4.87% | -2.18% | -0.72% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.64% | 5.01% | -2.55% | -1.84% | -0.17% | -2.80% | -6.36% | 4.62% | -1.05% | -8.17% | 3.89% | 2.09% |
| 2024 | -1.59% | 0.03% | 5.94% | 2.04% | 0.98% | 6.63% | 1.41% | 7.54% | 0.31% | -5.49% | 8.94% | -6.39% |
| 2023 | 7.88% | -1.78% | -2.87% | 5.42% | -3.87% | 9.64% | -0.05% | -1.68% | -8.43% | -5.76% | 2.73% | 8.75% |
| 2022 | -1.96% | -3.87% | 6.17% | -9.36% | -5.73% | -5.18% | 8.54% | -6.65% | -7.30% | -6.25% | 2.92% | -8.07% |
| 2021 | 3.98% | 6.12% | 10.43% | 3.63% | 4.34% | 0.19% | 9.26% | -0.07% | -3.04% | 6.77% | -1.26% | 6.79% |
| 2020 | -9.61% | -17.00% | 5.43% | -6.92% | -1.92% | -8.82% | 5.26% | -7.99% | -8.47% | 23.29% | 3.41% | |
| Avg | 1.27% | -0.38% | -0.74% | 2.26% | -1.61% | 1.63% | 0.26% | 1.50% | -4.58% | -4.56% | 6.75% | 1.10% |
EQR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EQR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EQR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EQR Distribution of Daily % Changes