Seasonality
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EOG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.3% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.1% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +9.1% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +12.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.80% | 10.66% | 16.51% | -2.01% | -5.11% | -2.74% | 15.47% | -4.09% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.35% | 0.91% | 1.02% | -13.18% | -1.60% | 10.17% | 1.17% | 4.00% | -10.17% | -4.69% | 1.90% | -2.63% |
| 2024 | -5.18% | 0.59% | 11.69% | 4.06% | -5.74% | 1.06% | 1.44% | 1.59% | -4.57% | -0.08% | 9.27% | -8.01% |
| 2023 | 2.76% | -14.54% | 2.36% | 4.93% | -10.20% | 6.66% | 16.59% | -2.95% | -1.45% | 0.22% | -2.52% | -0.46% |
| 2022 | 26.42% | 3.09% | 4.65% | -1.48% | 17.30% | -18.25% | 1.47% | 9.06% | -6.75% | 22.91% | 3.96% | -7.66% |
| 2021 | 2.82% | 26.69% | 12.35% | 2.10% | 9.10% | 3.86% | -11.10% | -7.33% | 18.88% | 15.71% | -5.91% | 4.48% |
| 2020 | -13.24% | -43.22% | 33.45% | 7.28% | -0.61% | -6.78% | -3.22% | -20.73% | -3.77% | 36.92% | 6.38% | |
| Avg | 6.33% | 2.02% | 0.77% | 3.98% | 1.58% | 0.02% | 2.61% | 0.19% | -4.13% | 5.05% | 7.27% | -1.32% |
EOG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EOG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EOG Distribution of Daily % Changes