Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.1% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -1.6% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +6.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.88% | 0.54% | 1.89% | 20.83% | -7.27% | 0.37% | -3.86% | 4.87% | ||||
| 2025 | -1.24% | -8.74% | -9.61% | 8.48% | 17.76% | 13.36% | 17.36% | -1.19% | 4.76% | 4.08% | -8.98% | -0.53% |
| 2024 | 5.97% | 37.44% | 11.70% | 2.06% | 8.82% | -6.07% | 2.91% | 4.69% | 9.53% | 3.67% | 14.36% | -11.02% |
| 2023 | 0.19% | 12.80% | -2.77% | 5.29% | -3.60% | 12.10% | 16.49% | 4.28% | -6.18% | -1.69% | 2.84% | 1.37% |
| 2022 | -6.32% | -3.08% | -2.52% | -5.35% | -0.80% | -2.53% | 13.17% | 2.19% | -2.89% | 22.34% | 9.78% | -4.38% |
| 2021 | -3.33% | 10.27% | 15.19% | 6.93% | 5.27% | -2.32% | -1.01% | -0.25% | -5.04% | 5.41% | -1.77% | 6.75% |
| 2020 | -6.39% | -20.28% | 3.74% | 0.03% | 4.08% | 3.70% | 9.50% | -9.73% | 0.82% | 26.38% | 6.13% | |
| Avg | 2.19% | 6.12% | -0.91% | 6.00% | 2.89% | 2.71% | 6.96% | 3.20% | -1.59% | 5.77% | 7.10% | -0.28% |
EME - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EME - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EME Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EME Distribution of Daily % Changes