Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.5% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -2.0% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +6.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.38% | 1.27% | -1.97% | 9.15% | -9.17% | 10.91% | 4.74% | -1.08% | ||||
| 2025 | -4.12% | 1.64% | 3.44% | -1.24% | -2.68% | -2.11% | -1.19% | 1.81% | 2.44% | -10.20% | -0.07% | 7.97% |
| 2024 | 8.88% | -4.18% | 8.24% | -7.82% | 7.24% | -2.54% | 3.11% | -0.16% | 0.42% | -9.24% | 9.55% | -6.48% |
| 2023 | 5.56% | 9.80% | -6.33% | 5.58% | -9.62% | 0.54% | 5.46% | 0.05% | 3.52% | 6.44% | 4.21% | -13.88% |
| 2022 | 3.46% | 5.23% | 1.64% | -8.85% | 3.46% | -0.79% | -6.75% | 3.57% | -2.46% | 22.95% | 5.27% | -1.97% |
| 2021 | -9.83% | 14.56% | 3.11% | 11.76% | -5.58% | -3.06% | 0.33% | 5.37% | -5.33% | 4.27% | -1.38% | 6.84% |
| 2020 | -10.37% | -21.86% | -10.02% | 15.47% | 3.93% | 6.11% | 0.59% | -9.61% | -0.23% | 15.35% | 3.68% | |
| Avg | 0.26% | 2.56% | -1.96% | -0.21% | -0.13% | 0.98% | 1.68% | 1.87% | -1.83% | 2.33% | 5.49% | -0.64% |
EG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EG Distribution of Daily % Changes