Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.18% | 3.75% | -13.59% | -3.40% | -4.36% | -4.26% | 8.76% | 4.77% | ||||
| 2025 | 7.82% | -10.62% | -0.67% | 6.80% | 1.75% | -1.82% | -7.38% | 2.53% | 4.37% | -17.71% | 0.84% | 2.17% |
| 2024 | -1.19% | 12.14% | -2.22% | -17.69% | 5.26% | 4.78% | 15.22% | 9.94% | -4.20% | -9.81% | -1.15% | -2.57% |
| 2023 | 14.32% | -8.68% | 0.15% | 2.73% | 0.30% | 12.79% | -13.27% | 1.28% | -11.21% | -7.43% | 28.63% | 13.59% |
| 2022 | -18.11% | -8.77% | 8.59% | -14.16% | -0.26% | -9.77% | 14.30% | -9.65% | -8.99% | -1.10% | 16.65% | -1.53% |
| 2021 | -8.16% | -8.40% | 11.89% | 26.56% | 2.70% | 1.90% | 8.81% | 4.47% | -6.79% | 9.47% | 0.58% | 5.07% |
| 2020 | -5.24% | -15.69% | 16.28% | 10.84% | 11.93% | -5.42% | 3.77% | -6.76% | -12.94% | 22.46% | 15.54% | |
| Avg | -2.08% | -3.69% | -1.65% | 2.44% | 2.32% | 2.22% | 3.00% | 2.06% | -5.60% | -6.59% | 11.33% | 5.38% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +11.3% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -6.6% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -7.4% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -16.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
EFX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EFX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EFX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EFX Distribution of Daily % Changes